Nigeria stands at a critical demographic crossroads, with over 60% of its population under the age of 30. This youthful majority could become the engine of national development—or a destabilizing force, depending on the country’s policy choices and investment priorities. This warning was issued by the Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC), Hon. Nasir Isa Kwarra, during a press briefing in Abuja to commemorate the 2025 World Population Day. The theme of this year’s commemoration is “Empowering Young People to Create the Families They Want in a Fair and Hopeful World.”
Kwarra described Nigeria’s demographic reality as a “double-edged sword”, a powerful potential for national transformation, yet fraught with risk if structural barriers are not urgently addressed. These barriers include widespread youth unemployment, poor access to education and healthcare, gender inequality, and the social marginalisation of young people. “Far too many of our young people face multiple constraints,” he said. “These realities threaten to turn our potential demographic dividend into a demographic burden if left unaddressed.”
To tackle this, the NPC is pursuing a three-pronged strategy that focuses on improving data systems to inform governance and planning. The first pillar is the revitalisation of Nigeria’s Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) system, which Kwarra described as the bedrock of inclusive governance. “A birth certificate is not just a document; it is the first formal recognition of a citizen by the state. Without it, individuals remain invisible to policymakers and are often excluded from basic services,” he explained. Through partnerships with the Federal Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Interior, and development partners, the NPC is rolling out digital birth registration systems in hospitals and communities nationwide.
The second strategic initiative is Nigeria’s first fully digital Population and Housing Census. This landmark data exercise is designed to provide accurate demographic information, including age, gender, education, housing, and access to services. Kwarra stressed that this data will be vital for evidence-based planning, particularly in sectors like education, healthcare, employment, and youth development. “We cannot plan for what we don’t know. Accurate data is the foundation of effective governance,” he said.
The third pillar of the NPC’s strategy is the creation of the National Geospatial Data Repository. This digital platform will combine data from the census and CRVS systems with geographic mapping tools to help identify underserved communities and monitor the delivery of services in real time. According to Kwarra, this innovation will enable more targeted interventions, especially in areas with high youth populations and limited infrastructure.
These national efforts align with the global call to action in the 2025 State of World Population (SWOP) Report, recently released by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). The report shifts the focus from fertility rates to reproductive agency, emphasising the need to ensure people can make informed, voluntary choices about their reproductive lives. Kwarra echoed this sentiment, saying, “The real fertility crisis is not about how many children Nigerians are having, but about the barriers they face in making those choices freely and safely.”
Recent findings from the 2023–2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) underscore the urgency. While the country’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined from 5.3 to 4.8 children per woman, adolescent fertility remains high at 15%. Moreover, modern contraceptive prevalence among married women has stagnated at just 15%, far below the national target of 27% by 2030. Even more troubling, the unmet need for family planning has risen to 21%, pointing to major gaps in access to reproductive health services.
“These statistics represent more than numbers,” Kwarra said. “They tell the stories of young girls forced into early motherhood, women unable to space their pregnancies, and families trying to make informed decisions without adequate support.” He called for a shift from judgment and population panic to policy and investment, particularly in youth-friendly healthcare services, education, and employment opportunities.
In his goodwill message, UNFPA Nigeria’s Deputy Representative, Mr. Koessan Kuawu, reinforced the urgency of enabling young people to make reproductive decisions without coercion or stigma. “The narrative around population often misattributes fertility rates to free choice, ignoring the complex realities young Nigerians face: financial insecurity, lack of access to health services, and intense societal pressures,” he said. Kuawu emphasized that “we must support young people, not blame them, for their fertility decisions.”
As part of this year’s World Population Day observance, the NPC and UNFPA have launched youth consultations, media campaigns, stakeholder forums, and community engagements aimed at amplifying the voices of young Nigerians. These platforms are designed to promote reproductive health rights and ensure that young people have the resources and information they need to thrive.
In closing, Kwarra issued a clarion call to all sectors of society, government, civil society, private enterprise, religious and traditional institutions, to rise to the occasion. “Empowering our youth is not a choice,” he said. “It is an existential imperative. It demands collective resolve, evidence-based action, and a steadfast commitment to justice and opportunity.”
