The All Progressives Congress (APC) has once again consolidated its political dominance, emerging victorious in the majority of the by-elections conducted across 16 constituencies in 12 states. According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the APC secured 12 seats, while the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) won two, and both the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) each claimed one. The results have been described by analysts as an early indicator of Nigeria’s political direction ahead of the 2027 general elections.
In Anambra State, APGA reaffirmed its control by winning the Anambra South Senatorial District and the Onitsha North State Assembly seat, defeating its closest rival, the African Democratic Congress (ADC). In Oyo State, the PDP retained its stronghold in the Ibadan North Federal Constituency, while in Kano, the NNPP made a statement by securing one of the contested seats, keeping alive its rivalry with the APC in the North-West. Across the board, the results underscored how entrenched parties largely maintained influence in their strongholds.
The outcome, however, sparked outrage among opposition parties. The ADC—now the adopted political platform of leading figures such as Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, and Nasir El-Rufai—failed to secure a single seat in the exercise. In a strongly worded statement, the party alleged that the elections were marred by violence, vote buying, intimidation, and administrative irregularities. Reports of ballot box snatching, the arrest of over 300 suspected thugs, and the seizure of ₦25.9 million allegedly earmarked for vote inducement fueled doubts about the process. Technical glitches with the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) in some areas further deepened suspicion.
For the ADC, the by-elections were nothing short of a “dress rehearsal for 2027,” with the party insisting that the outcome reflected a deteriorating democratic culture under the APC-led government. The Labour Party also rejected the results, describing the polls as a “mockery of democracy” and warning that the exercise could be a troubling preview of what to expect in the next general election.
In contrast, the APC hailed the outcome as a resounding vote of confidence in its leadership and policies. President Bola Tinubu congratulated the party’s victorious candidates, praised INEC for a largely peaceful exercise, and commended APC’s new National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, for guiding the party to a successful outing. The ruling party framed the results as evidence of Nigerians’ trust in the Renewed Hope Agenda and reassurance that the government’s policies are gaining traction among citizens.
Political analysts have since described the elections as a revealing test case ahead of 2027. While the APC’s sweeping victory showcased its organizational advantage, the inability of opposition parties to translate their coalition into electoral strength has raised concerns about their strategy moving forward. At the same time, lingering allegations of malpractice and electoral violence underscore the challenges facing Nigeria’s democratic institutions.
For many observers, the by-elections represent not just a contest for a handful of legislative seats, but a window into the battles and power struggles that will define Nigeria’s political landscape in the run-up to 2027.
