By Chinyere Akataobi
Last December, I came across a tweet that talked about the possibility of a Goodluck Jonathan candidacy. The tweet drew parallels to John Mahama’s victory at the Ghana elections in which he reclaimed a mandate he lost in 2016.
I shared the tweet with an old friend who was incidentally part of the team that provided communication support to Goodluck Jonathan in 2011 and was also a key part of the machinery that took him out in 2015. His answer was simple but powerful: I want him to run.
Over the weekend, watching his video critiquing the current administration brought that response back to mind with renewed clarity. This led me on a journey of constructing possibilities of what the candidacy will look like in the midst of the ongoing realignment within the polity and what it would mean for Nigeria as a nation.
A Return to Familiar Leadership
For many Nigerians, the period of former President Goodluck Jonathan’s presidency now represents a period of relative stability and for others prosperity in the nation. His time captaining the ship of our nation was marked by reforms in education, agriculture, youth development as well as electoral reforms. His commitment to democracy, exemplified by his historic concession of defeat in 2015. His famous words, “My ambition is not worth the blood of any Nigerian,” still stands out as a rare moment of statesmanship never before seen in our nation.
In a political landscape riddled with distrust, Jonathan’s perceived humility and calm carriage could offer an appealing contrast to more divisive figures currently running the country.
His candidacy could signal a “safe pair of hands” for those yearning for a stabilizing presence amidst Nigeria’s escalating challenges, including insecurity, economic downturn, and social fragmentation.
The Political Party Dilemma
If Goodluck Ebele Jonathan were to throw his hat in the ring to contest the 2027 General Elections, the choice of a political party will be an important decision as he has somehow stayed away from party politics since his defeat in 2015.
With an opposition in disarray and the ongoing push by certain elements in the polity to build a new opposition a swift realignment of forces with him as a key part of it to create an efficient campaign machinery becomes essential.
A return to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) would undoubtedly pose a significant challenge to the ambitions of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who appears poised for yet another presidential bid, one he has pursued since 1993.
The rumored gist of a gentle-man understanding between Jonathan and the APC also complicates the matter with the current president almost certain to secure the APC’s nomination, any possibility of Jonathan running under its banner appears unlikely.
The Legacy Question
However, Jonathan’s legacy is not without its controversies. His administration was marred with reports of seemingly unforgivable mismanagement of funds in the oil sector. While his supporters argue that corruption is systemic and not unique to his tenure, skeptics question whether his return would signify progress or merely a recycling of old problems.
While a lot feel his defeat at the polls in 2015 was just punishment for his mismanagement that marred his administration, the 2027 election would force Jonathan to answer hard questions about this legacy head-on. Whether he would be able to convince Nigerians that he has learned from past mistakes remains to be seen.
Geopolitical Implications
I hold the view rooted in the realpolitik of Nigeria’s power dynamics that the only Southerners with a viable path to the presidency in 2027 are Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Goodluck Jonathan. The logic is pragmatic: both men are constitutionally restricted to a single term, a factor that could serve as a key bargaining chip in appeasing the North’s growing appetite for a swift return to power. In contrast, any other Southern aspirant, lacking that term limit constraint, would likely struggle to gain traction in the North-West and North-East, where political calculations are increasingly framed around long-term regional advantage.
Jonathan’s potential candidacy, in particular, carries significant geopolitical weight. As a South-South figure from Bayelsa State, his return would likely rekindle debates around equity and power rotation, especially following Tinubu’s presidency another chapter in South-Western dominance within the South. Since the return to democratic rule over two-decades ago, a President from the South-South has ruled the country for five years, while the South-East remains entirely excluded.
Against this backdrop, Jonathan could emerge as a palatable compromise for both sides of the Political divide specially if internal dissent within the region continues to fester due to Tinubu’s perceived favoritism for certain elements and controversial alliances. In such a scenario, a Jonathan candidacy may serve as both a pressure release valve and a transitional bridge that resets the system without disrupting future Northern aspirations.
The Peter Obi Variable
Peter Obi’s emergence as a formidable third force in the 2023 elections, propelled by his “Obedient” movement largely composed of disillusioned young voters across the South-South, South-East, Middle Belt, and Christian enclaves of the North marked a significant shift in Nigeria’s political dynamics.
Garnering over six million votes, many believe Obi’s tally was suppressed in key regions, and his performance especially considering the mere hundred thousand votes won by the third-placed candidate in 2019.
He remains a credible opposition figure and is widely expected to make another run in 2027. However, a major challenge to his candidacy lies in the informal but influential understanding that presidential power should rotate between the North and South.
There is uncertainty around whether Obi, if elected, would agree to serve only one term to allow power return to the North a concession that might make his candidacy more acceptable to northern stakeholders. In the absence of that clarity, the North may find it more politically expedient to back Tinubu for a second term, after which they could reclaim the presidency for a full eight years. In this context, a Goodluck Jonathan candidacy if structured as a transitional, one-term presidency could be seen as a strategic compromise, potentially bridging regional interests and absorbing Obi’s disenchanted support base.
Youth engagement and the future
Jonathan’s success would hinge on his ability to connect with Nigeria’s youth, who make up the majority of the population and are increasingly disillusioned with traditional politics. Movements like #EndSARS and the rise of younger, reformist candidates in recent elections indicate a hunger for new ideas and leadership styles.
Would Jonathan offer policies that address youth unemployment, education reform, and digital innovation? Or would he be dismissed as part of the old guard, out of touch with the aspirations of a tech-savvy, globally connected generation? This question will define not just the viability of his campaign, but its legitimacy.
A symbol of national unity?
In a deeply divided nation, Jonathan’s candidacy could also be framed as an attempt at national healing. His ability to govern without overt favoritism during his presidency earned him a reputation as a unifying figure. If he can articulate a vision that transcends regional, ethnic, and religious divides, he might rekindle hope for a more inclusive Nigeria.
Conclusion
Goodluck Jonathan’s potential candidacy for the 2027 elections is fraught with complexities. While his return could offer a sense of familiarity and stability, it also risks reigniting debates about his past performance and the broader issue of recycling leadership.
Whether Jonathan’s second act would represent redemption or regression depends on his ability to present a compelling vision for Nigeria’s future. As the nation grapples with insecurity, economic instability, and a restless youth population, Jonathan must answer the most pressing question of all: What new solutions can he bring to the table?
The ball, as always, will be in the court of the Nigerian electorate, whose patience with empty promises is rapidly wearing thin.
(Chinyere Akataobi currently leads a Governance Consulting and Political Advisory Firm, StateCraft INC. He can be reached at chinyereakataobi@outlook.com)
