Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell to 18.02 per cent in September 2025, down from 20.12 per cent in August, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), this is the first time in three years that inflation has dropped below the 20 per cent mark. The decline represents a significant slowdown in the pace of price increases across the country.
The NBS attributed the fall to the recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which adjusted the base year and weighting of items in the consumer basket. This technical change, alongside easing food prices, has helped drive down the inflation figures and contributed to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s first interest rate cut in years.
On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation was 14.68 percentage points lower than in September 2024, when it stood at 32.70 per cent. The data also showed that, on a month-on-month basis, inflation slowed to 0.72 per cent in September, slightly lower than the 0.74 per cent recorded in August. This indicates that while prices are still rising, they are doing so at a slower pace.
Food inflation, which has been the main driver of Nigeria’s cost-of-living crisis, also declined significantly. The food inflation rate stood at 16.87 per cent year-on-year, down sharply from 37.77 per cent in September 2024 — a drop of 20.9 percentage points. The NBS noted that this fall was partly due to the change in the CPI base year. On a month-to-month basis, food inflation was –1.57 per cent, compared to 1.65 per cent in August. The decline was linked to lower average prices of key food items such as maize, beans, garri, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, tomatoes, and fresh pepper.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, also moderated. It dropped to 19.53 per cent in September 2025, down from 27.43 per cent a year earlier. On a month-on-month basis, core inflation was 1.42 per cent, only marginally below the August rate of 1.43 per cent. The NBS report further showed that the average 12-month annual inflation rate stood at 22.39 per cent for the year ending in September, compared to 25.64 per cent in the same period of 2024.
The disinflation trend was uneven across the country. Adamawa (23.69 per cent), Katsina (23.53 per cent), and Nasarawa (22.29 per cent) recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation rates, while Anambra (9.28 per cent), Niger (11.79 per cent), and Bauchi (12.36 per cent) had the lowest. On a month-on-month basis, the steepest increases were seen in Zamfara (9.36 per cent), Adamawa (8.15 per cent), and Nasarawa (7.49 per cent), while Niger (-8.14 per cent), Oyo (-5.56 per cent), and Bayelsa (-4.61 per cent) recorded declines.
Food inflation also varied widely by state. Year-on-year, Ekiti (28.68 per cent), Rivers (24.18 per cent), and Nasarawa (22.74 per cent) had the highest rates, while Bauchi (2.81 per cent), Niger (8.38 per cent), and Anambra (8.41 per cent) posted the slowest increases. Month-on-month, Zamfara (15.62 per cent), Ekiti (12.77 per cent), and Sokoto (12.55 per cent) saw the highest food price growth, while Akwa Ibom (-12.97 per cent), Borno (-12.95 per cent), and Cross River (-10.36 per cent) recorded notable decreases.
Urban and rural inflation showed a slight divergence. Urban inflation rose marginally to 0.74 per cent in September from 0.49 per cent in August, standing at 17.50 per cent year-on-year. Rural inflation, on the other hand, eased to 18.26 per cent year-on-year and 0.67 per cent month-on-month, suggesting that rural areas are experiencing a slower rise in living costs compared to cities.
Analysts say the sustained easing of inflation strengthens the case for further monetary policy easing. The Central Bank of Nigeria, which recently cut its policy rate by 50 basis points, the first cut since 202, may introduce additional measures if the downward trend continues. However, experts warn that persistent risks such as currency volatility, high transportation costs, and structural weaknesses in agriculture could still threaten price stability in the months ahead.
